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Thought Experiment
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Wednesday, 04 August 2010

Sometime in the 18th century (give or take a hundred years) man lost control of his environment.

Prior to then he knew how to make a plow, how to churn butter, how to weave cloth.  A clock was pretty complicated, but the average guy could figure how it worked.  Some things were complex, using a sextant, smelting metal, but not beyond the capability of the average person.  People were self reliant.

As the industrial revolution advanced, people became more specialized and lost their capacity to understand everything in their environment.  Today, we may have the theoretical understanding of how things work, such as an internal combustion engine (“Suck, Squeeze, Bang, Blow”) but that’s a long way from being able to build a car.

No one could build a cell phone.  The interconnectedness of all the processes involved are too complex.  That isn’t a bad thing.  We wouldn’t have cell phones if we needed to understand them.

That brings up an interesting thought experiment.  Suppose there were a disease that killed of a certain percentage of the population at random.  What percent would that have to be in order for society to be changed “substantially,” and what would that look like?

I think it would manifest itself in some basic industry, probably something to do with energy, reaching a tipping point, then everything collapses.  But it would probably be something weird, like spare parts for mining equipment, or rail switching gears.

I would guess it would happen when around 20% of the population would be gone.


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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 04 August 2010 )
 
Urban Ecosystem
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Tuesday, 03 August 2010

We have a pretty healthy urban ecosystem in our yard.  Two tube feeders, a house feeder, a Niger seed feeder, a suet feeder, and a tray feeder all help attract a lot of birds.  And, birds being birds, they spill a lot, which provides a lot of food for the squirrels and chipmunks.

We have a lot of rabbits, a few regular cats, and have seen opossums, raccoons, and a skunk.  We had a family of rats once, and were not disappointed when they moved out.  In addition to the birds you’d expect, we have Cooper’s hawks in the neighbor and once had a pheasant living in our yard for close to a year, and a chucker for several months.

Those two species fill more or less the same niche but behave differently.  Squirrels are spenders.  They usually will eat what they find or, when the do cache it away, will bury seeds randomly (or so it seems to me).  They don’t hibernate and are out there all winter long.

Chipmunks, on the other hand, are savers.  They will pick up as many seeds as they can fit in their cheeks and then run off to their lair to store them.  I recall reading somewhere that a chipmunk will store all the food it needs for its entire life in one summer.  They hibernate and seeing our first chipmunk is a harbinger of spring.

Our chipmunks are bolder than our squirrels.  When they see us outside, or hear us dropping peanuts, they run right up to us and jump into our hands to collect whatever we have.  They love peanuts.

One chipmunks we have, though, is spender.  He’ll take a nut or two, run a little ways off, and eat it.  We have never seen this behavior in a chipmunk before.

It’s a sign, but I don’t know what of.

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Powder Room Remodeling.
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Monday, 02 August 2010

We are going to remodel our first floor powder room this year.  This will be the fourth project that we’ve done since 2006, the others being the upstairs bathroom (2006), the kitchen (2007), and the den (2009).

I have a blog for it here.

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